2018 Market Outlook – U.S. Real Estate

We generally believe that the premium for liquidity remains high despite steady growth and few immediate concerns. We see this across the different asset classes as well as within MBS/real estate. Across spread products, the liquid MBS and public securities remain the least well compensated for risks and exhibit a high liquidity premium. Within CRE lending as well, we find that there is a significant pickup in risk-adjusted spreads in transitional CRE lending versus more liquid CMBS-type loans on stabilized properties. In SFR we find the most attractive value in middle-of-the-pack properties in areas of at or above average median incomes. Here again, the premium to go to higher priced homes in higher income areas (which are likely more liquid) effectively values the same cashflow stream at a 20% premium. The tax reform proposals could have significant implications across property markets but the details remain in flux.